Understanding China's Response to the Trump Tariffs
Lessons from Su Xun and his treatise, On the Six States
History is a reference guide to understand the present and draw future conclusions. Anyone not privy to that will undoubtedly be doomed to make the same mistakes time and again.
Few nations are as adept as China at recalling and acting on the lessons learned from their history. China’s proficiency in this regard was my main inspiration for writing The Little Red Book: Understanding Modern China Through Historical Analysis. The history of China is incredibly long, yet so many of its traditional concepts, attitudes, and structures are still exhibited within the country today. This time, China channels an impactful member of its historical literati, Su Xun. His treatise, On the Six States, is not only a great piece of Chinese literary history but is also a way to make sense of Beijing’s response to the tariffs put in place by the Trump administration.
“Think about it: while the ancestors of the six states had gone through a lot of hardships —exposing themselves to frost, rain, and brambles — in opening up their meager land, their sons and grandsons were nonetheless indifferent and simply gave it away to others as one would throw away a piece of weed, ceding five cities today and ten tomorrow merely for a temporary peace — so temporary that when they woke up the following morning from their peaceful sleep, Qin’s forces had already reached them again.” (Xu Yingcai, 2011)
Su Xun (1009-1066 AD) was a scholar, essayist, and philosopher during the Song Dynasty (900-1279 AD) who became a prolific writer after failing the civil service examinations. Despite this disappointment, he shifted his focus to studying classical literature and philosophy from the Spring and Autumn Period (770-481 BC). Following his self-studies, he became a legendary essayist known for his ability to clearly and concisely argue philosophical and political issues. As he expanded his knowledge, he coached his two sons, Su Shi and Su Zhe, who later became even more famous than him.
One of Su Xun's most well-known essays is On the Six States. The title references the six states of the Warring States Period (475-221 BC) during the Zhou Dynasty (1046-256 BC), a period of mass civil war with seven different factions. The factions were Qin, Han, Wei, Zhao, Qi, Chu, and Yan. The most powerful of all was the Qin, which boasted one of the largest territories. While it took the Qin some time to increase its influence due to the same geography that benefited their defensive efforts, their potential was undeniable when they arrived on the battlefield. Due to the growing Qin threat, the six other states pursued a vertical alliance (hezong - 合縱). According to Te-Chen Chiou (丘德真), a journalist for the Taipei Times, Sima Qian (司馬遷) recorded that "once the king of Qin learned of the vertical alliance's formation in 333 BC, he 'suffered from a huge panic attack.' (Te-Chen Chiou, 2021)
What is a vertical alliance? Put simply, using the example from the Warring States, if the Qin attacks the Han, the other states of Wei, Chu, Zhao, Qi, and Yan will rush to defend them. Accordingly, if Qin were to invade Chu, for example, the other five states would defend them, and so forth. A vertical alliance is a highly viable mode of diplomatic strategy. Still, despite its success in creating anxiety within Ying Zheng (later Qin Shi Huang), the six states pursued a different strategy. They later preferred the concept of a horizontal alliance (lianheng - 連橫) that aimed to ally themselves with the Qin in hopes of currying favor following their inevitable victory.
However, the Qin's victory did not have to be inevitable.
Su Xun argued that this very act of appeasement and bribery paid to the state of Qin led to the downfall of the six states. As Qin's attack loomed, they compromised and offered land "as small as a town and sometimes as big as a city" (Xu Yingcai, 2011). Su Xun argued that the Qin gained more land in this respect than it made from winning wars. Ying Zheng was far from inept and realized this, so he shifted his rhetoric to exude peace instead of war. Su Xun lamented that the sons and grandsons of the six states gave away what their forebearers built through hardship. As time passed, the Qin received more and more land via this method. "But their land was not infinite while brutal Qin’s appetite was insatiable. The more they offered Qin, the further it pressed. As a result, even without actual wars, it was already clear who was stronger and who, weaker; who was going to win and who, to lose. Therefore, it is inevitable that they were to be destroyed. This, our ancients had already well pointed out, ‘The practice of buying off Qin with land is like attempting to extinguish fire with firewood — The fire won't stop until the firewood runs out.'"(Xu Yingcai, 2011)
Only one state did not attempt to bribe the Qin with land. That was the state of Qi. However, it shared the same fate as its fellow states. Why? Su Xun writes that it was because they were on friendly terms with Qin and neglected to support the other five states. If the six states wanted to put a significant question mark on the rise of the Qin, Su Xun explains how to do it. "If the three states of Han, Wei and Chu had treasured their land, Qi had not affiliated itself with Qin, Yan had not send its assassin, and the able general of Zhao were still alive, then it would be hard to say who would be the winner! Alas! If the land used in buying off Qin had been used to reward the strategists in the world and if the humble attitude adopted in treating Qin had been adopted to treat the extraordinary talents in the world — if these had been employed against Qin, then I am afraid that Qin may not have been able to swallow what it was trying to chew. What a sad story! Such great advantages were all borne down by the Qin’s gradually accrued force — being chipped off day by day and bit by bit until completely taken away. No ruler should be daunted by such an accrued force! All the six – and Qin as well — were but feudal states. Although the six states were weaker than Qin, they all the same had the possibility of defeating it if only they had not adopted the buying-off practice. Now we are such a large country. Should we follow the footsteps of the six states to ruin, we would be far inferior to them." (Xu Yingcai, 2011)
Now, why is this almost thousand-old essay important today? Previously, this essay functioned as an analogy for the modern day. The United States of America assumed the role of one of the six states, and China as the Qin. However, what if I told you this time that the United States was the Qin and China was part of the six states?
President Trump and his administration has plunged the world economy and international relations into chaos. Some nations have hastily run towards the negotiating table but, others, like China have retaliated. This starkly contrasts the six states’ choice to follow the path of appeasement to ruin. While the six states appeased the Qin in an effort to preserve themselves, China takes a big risk to have an opportunity for serious gain at the cost of the United States. If their gamble pays, off, they will find themselves at the top.
After April 2, 'Liberation Day,' China paved the way for the world's counterattack, slapping 34% reciprocal tariffs on US imports on Friday, April 4, 2025. This tariff rate matches the proposed figure that President Trump had levied on Chinese imports into the US. (New York Times, 2025) These tariffs will be implemented starting April 10 per the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council. (CGTN, 2025)
Before the Communist Party's victory in 1949, China endured a Century of Humiliation (1839-1949), where it was relentlessly beaten down by imperialism, which stifled and depreciated its growth as a nation. Even after the nightmare was over, the People's Republic of China still endured many trials and hardships to get to where it is today. Not many nations are more intimately aware of what appeasement and compromise in the face of aggression can do to a nation. This time, China appears to recognize that this fire will not be extinguished with more firewood.
On the day before the Qingming Festival (April 5), I find it prudent that China has taken such a stance. What better way to honor your ancestors than to hold sacred what they fought for?
Since their initial defiance last Friday, the US threatened a higher tariff of 104% if China did not back down. Once again, they remained firm. As the 104% tariffs took effect at midnight on 4/9, China retaliated with an 84% tariff of their own. Later, they even devalued the Chinese Yuan to dig their heels in. Remember, China is risking a lot here too, but it seems like they’re confident in coming out on top. The choice to devalue their own currency may seem strange at first, but it helps ensure they are still an attractive option for American businesses and consumers alike during these tumultuous times. Their efforts in doing so prompted President Trump to accuse them of currency manipulation to lessen the effects of the tariffs.
That is undoubtedly true, but did the President of the United States take such forceful measures and think no one was going to retaliate?
China has learned from the mistakes of the six states and is giving its every shot to position themselves as the next leader of the world. This act of defiance may prove to be the defining moment of China's modern history. In 20-30 years, we may look back at this decision to oppose the United States so resolutely as the beginning of its crowning moment.
A leader's effectiveness is underscored by their ability to inspire others, and China's response to the tariffs may accomplish precisely that. As China retaliates, other nations may be inspired to fight back as well. If there is a concerted effort to hold strong and even retaliate (a vertical alliance of sorts), President Trump's strategy will be turned on its head, and the US will be left in devastation.
That said, this result is not a sure one. Even in the tale of the Six States, Han, Wei, Zhao, Qi, Chu, and Yan initially stood strong in the face of Qin aggression before relenting. To overcome what they deem as a global threat, China and the rest of the world must establish closer economic ties with one another as they try to outlast the US’ strategy. Should this happen, the era of America, the free world’s leader since World War II will draw to a close.
However, the United States could still stand to emerge victorious. The EU is rightfully cautious about their next moves and seems to not be ready to pursue closer ties with Beijing. While China’s stance against what they deem as ‘bullying’ is commendable, the six states wouldn’t have been called as such if they didn’t have each other. China will need to ramp up exports in alternative markets while reducing trade barriers with some of the United States’ closest allies. Furthermore, if the purpose of these tariffs functioned as a short term ‘bring everyone to the negotiating table’ tactic, the US could very well spin China as an aggressor/agitator and alienate them for retaliating.
There is not yet a clear resolution in sight. Though I am certain that China will continue recalling their 4000+ year history for the appropriate answers.
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